While I want Kamala Harris to win next week’s election — and my hopes are buoyed by Virginia Heffernan’s must-read piece on the latest polls — I am keeping my expectations low for what will happen thereafter.
First of all, unless it’s a landslide in her favor, we won’t know the result next Tuesday. Or Wednesday. Probably not until Friday or Saturday. Possibly longer. There will be challenges from Trump’s team of liars and lawyers, with never-ending specious claims made by right-wing media, all attempting to subvert the entire process any way they can. Kamala says her team is ready to do battle in court, but that would take time. Even if the bogus claims are turned away, he will never concede and his hardcore supporters will never admit she won.
Second, Republicans have set up election deniers in several important precincts and swing states who will refuse to do their jobs lawfully, including certifying the results. They will claim without any evidence that there are massive occurrences of voter fraud (though there never have been), or that large percentages of people who don’t have white skin voted illegally. Again, that means Kamala’s legal experts will have to fight such efforts in court — with the hope that the judges who hear such obstruction cases will rule based on the merits of the cases, not because of their political leanings. We’ve been lucky so far, but there are no guarantees about what’s to come.
Third, even if Kamala’s margin of victory is so wide as to be indisputable, MAGA Morons in Congress can still muck things up. In January, 2021, one hundred thirty nine members of the House and eight Senators raised what the NY Times called, “a planned series of highly unusual objections, based on spurious allegations of widespread voter fraud, to states’ election results.” You’re fooling yourself if you don’t think they’re prepared to do so again, perhaps in larger numbers since more right-wing extremists have been elected to Congress since.
Fourth, if Kamala wins, that doesn’t mean that things will get markedly better in this country. While it will mean the end of Donald Trump as a political candidate, he’ll still hold rallies and make phone calls to Fox News, spewing even more of his bilious bullshit. He won’t draw as much attention, but his tactics of division and fear-mongering won’t go away. He’ll leave behind a political party made up of extremists and naysayers who will carry on his trash-talking tradition.
Fifth, it is likely Republicans will regain the majority in the Senate. That means they get to disapprove anyone Kamala appoints to judgeships, the cabinet, and lots of other federal offices. It also means she will not be able to get legislation through Congress that makes abortion legal again in this country. Democrats will not be able to get rid of the filibuster. Whichever right wing extremist becomes Mitch McConnell’s successor as Senate Majority Leader will continue his ways of blocking a Democratic president’s choices — particularly if a seat opens up on the Supreme Court. What are the chances of a vacancy there? The two oldest justices are 74-year-old Samuel Alito and 76-year-old Clarence Thomas, both of whom relish their ability to blatantly accept unreported graft and vote against the best interests of the country. They’d have to go in order for the majority to swing back.
If all of that feels daunting, remember that Joe Biden has been able to accomplish a lot during his four years in the Oval Office, and this would mark the first time in decades a President is sworn in while the economy is strong.
I’m not saying you shouldn’t be hopeful, as I am. But keep your expectations low until circumstances indicate otherwise.
Doing so means you can be pleasantly surprised by the outcome instead of depressingly disappointed.